Thursday, October 9, 2008

Duh, Who Else Did I Forget?

In this story about bubble economics for The Big Money I say that folks like Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, economist Nouriel Roubini, and MIT professor Andy Lo had been talking about a coming crash for a long time. One reader wrote in to call me on this, saying this was after the fact wisdom. Not so. In fact, I should have listed many other names, with George Soros and Warren Buffett heading the list--two reasonably well people, and not by any means "perma-bears". On the contrary, it's the idea that a crash was a huge surprise that I think is a rewriting of the record by folks who rode the wave despite knowing there was a bad end to come (though I will not claim that everybody, or anybody, saw just how it would play out).