Friday, October 31, 2008

Mea Culpa. Sorta.

Another story on The Big Money about where house prices are going . (You don't have to ask.) In an earlier version of the story, I made a mistake and misquoted the prices of the house I cite in Riverside, Calif. that had gone down in price by 75 percent. I immediately heard from not one but three local appraisers, who pointed out--absolutely correctly--that the price I'd quote of $586,000 for a little two bedroom starter house in Riverside was impossibly high. They were absolutely right.

But ... it turned out that the recent sales price I'd quoted was also too high. The local folks had trouble believing this until they checked themselves. It turned out that all the prices I'd seen were doubled, because of a quirk in Riverside County tax records (unlike, say, New York City, California doesn't put its real estate records online for free, so you need to rely on a network of more or less expensive and more or less reliable private sources). Two years ago, the house sold for $293,000, not $586,000. But guess what? It now went for $73,500, not $147,000. Still that same three quarter drop.

A number of people wrote in to me after the story appeared and accused me of being irresponsible with a story that could lead borrowers to walk away from their mortgages. What can I say? Yes, knowing how much their houses have gone down in price and how much further they have to go may lead some to walk away from their mortgages. Yes, it might, but moralizing doesn't really fall into my job description. Those looking for lectures on why should pay their debts I have to refer to their local religious authorities. Or the Treasury Department.